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<p><strong>There will be no negative effects on health in Fukushima</strong></p>
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<p>Scientist Kunihiko Takeda views the fact that the government  has raised the yearly exposure limit for the victims of this disaster to  20 millisieverts as a problem. He said, &ldquo;After the Chernobyl accident,  children developed cancer starting four years from exposure.&rdquo;＊8 Although  it is not clearly stated, he is referring to thyroid cancer. The  problem is that he causes misunderstanding among his readers by leading  them to believe that cancer can occur from such low doses of radiation. In the area around Chernobyl, such sickness occurred because the thyroid  glands of people were exposed to up to 50 sieverts (although most were  exposed to just several sieverts). There were around 100,000 children in  Belarus. Among these, four people developed cancer after four years,  while a maximum of 13 people developed cancer after nine years.  Afterwards, these numbers declined.<br />
In the case of Fukushima, the thyroids of residents have been exposed to  low levels of radiation between 1/1,000th to 1/10,000th the amount in  Chernobyl. Among the 66 people I examined the maximum dose was eight  millisieverts. Based on radioactivity dosage, the risk of Fukushima  residents developing thyroid cancer is less than one person per 10  million per year. Since the population of Fukushima Prefecture is two  million, thyroid cancer will not result from these low doses. Truly,  people with only amateur knowledge of radioactivity need to stop  paralyzing the citizens of Fukushima and the entire country with fear. Regarding external exposure of the entire body, the largest dose among  those evacuated from the 30-kilometer area around Chernobyl was quite  high at 750 millisieverts over a period of seven days＊9. In contrast,  the dose for people subjected to emergency evacuation from the  20-kilometer area around the Fukushima nuclear power plant, based on my  predictions from transitions in the outdoor air dose rate at the time,  was a few millisieverts ‐ less than 1/100th the dose at Chernobyl. For  that reason, it&rsquo;s practically a crime to make people from Fukushima and  other parts of Japan fear health effects based on the damage that  occurred at Chernobyl.<br />
We know that the ovaries of females can be affected at a level of 650  millisieverts or greater, so it&rsquo;s true that terrible things happened to  the people evacuated from the 30-kilometer area around Chernobyl.  However, it is possible to affirm that absolutely no such risk is posed  to Fukushima or other prefectures. <br />
I believe there are almost no residents of Fukushima Prefecture who have  reached the level of 20 millisieverts per year. The estimated dose in  Fukushima over 30 days, according to personal dosimeter calculation  values from when I carried out my surveys, was 1.0 millisieverts or less  in the 20-kilometer area around the plant and its surrounding area from  April to May, and also from June to July, while the dose in the area  between Aizu and Fukushima City was 0.10 millisieverts or less. From the  above, I estimate that the annual external exposure for citizens of  Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 will be 10 millisieverts or less, while  most people will be exposed to five millisieverts or less.<br />
Scientific evaluations could be obtained by having everyone ‐ from  children to adults ‐ wear personal dosimeters. However, the government&rsquo;s  disaster countermeasures office did not do this during the initial  period between March and May, when radiation doses were comparatively  high. This was a truly careless mistake, especially considering that  people in Iitate Village were being advised to take shelter indoors.<br />
From the aforementioned actual values taken by personal dosimeter, my  tentative estimate of most Fukushima Prefecture residents&rsquo; external  exposure to radiation in 2011 is several millisieverts.</p>
<p><strong>Jun Takada (57)</strong><br />
Doctor of Science Professor, Sapporo Medical University</p>
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<p><a href="http://www.apa.co.jp/book_ronbun/vol4/2011einglish.html">http://www.apa.co.jp/book_ronbun/vol4/2011einglish.html</a></p>
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